Randy Miller

Broker Of Record

Urban Avenue Realty Ltd., Brokerage

Whitby & Brooklin Real Estate

Office 905-430-1800

Direct 905-430-9444

Email: randy@randymiller.ca

Categories

housing market outlook

According to the CMHC, housing markets are expected to remain stable for the rest of the year, and starts are expected to moderate in 2015 and 2016.

“Lower oil prices are contributing to disparities between provincial housing markets. A slowdown in housing starts and resale transactions in oil-producing provinces such as Alberta will be partly offset by increased housing market activity in other provinces, such as Ontario and British Columbia, which benefit from the positive impacts of declining energy prices, a lower Canadian dollar and continued low mortgage rates,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist for CMHC, in the news release.

The average price for a home sold through the MLS system is forecast to fall between $402,139 and $439,589 in 2015, with a point forecast of $422,129. Looking ahead to 2016, the average MLS price is expected to range between $398,191 and $457,200, with a point forecast of $428,325.

Canada-wide, home sales via the MLS system are believed to range between 437,100 and 494,500 units for 2015, with a point forecast of 475,400 units. In 2016, sales are to expected to range from 424,500 units to 491,300 units, with a point forecast of 469,000 units.

Housing starts are expected to decline by 4.1 per cent – and range between 166,540 and 188,580 units -- in 2015. Prices, meanwhile, are expected to increase by 3.4 per cent.

As for the near future, housing starts are expected to range between 162,840 and 190,830 in 2016.

In Ontario, all eyes are on the GTA housing market, which continues to see strong sale and price growth.

Demand for existing homes in the GTA is expected to remain strong. The CMHC is also forecasting stronger interest in higher density dwellings and conversely, an uptick in home rentals over ownership.

“An improving economy will be more supportive of the Ontario housing market in 2015 than it has been in the recent past,” said Ted Tsiakopoulos, CMHC’s Ontario Regional Economist. “However, as mortgage carrying costs continue to grow, particularly for single family homes, demand will increasingly shift to more affordable housing.”

Source: CMHC.ca

If you want to learn more about the local housing market of Whitby, Brooklin or other areas within Durham Region, contact me! 

Randy Miller
Broker of Record
Royal Heritage Realty Ltd.
Offices in Pickering and in Whitby
905-430-1800

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How is the Housing Market?

May 5, 2015 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Paul Etherington announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 11,303 sales in April 2015.  This represented a 17 per cent increase in comparison to April 2014.  While sales increased strongly on a year-over-year basis, new listings were up over the same period by a more moderate five per cent.

Toronto MLS Sales

Toronto MLS Sales Trendline

Toronto MLS New Listings

Mr. Etherington said that the record April result clearly points to the fact that a growing number of GTA households view ownership housing as a high quality long-term investment. First-time buyers and existing homeowners remain very active in today’s market.

Toronto MLS Avg Price

Toronto MLS Avg Resale Home Price
The overall average selling price was up by 10 per cent year-over-year to $635,932.  The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) composite benchmark, which estimates the price of a benchmark home with the same attributes from one period to the next, was up by 8.4 per cent over the same period.  The fact that average price growth outpaced growth for the MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark, suggests that a greater share of higher-end homes changed hands this year compared to last.

Price growth in the GTA was strongest for low-rise home types.  However, the better supplied condominium apartment segment also remained healthy with price growth above the rate of inflation.

“Demand for ownership housing was very high relative to the number of homes available for sale in April.  This situation is not expected to change markedly as we move through the remainder of 2015.  Until we experience a sustained period in which listings grow at a faster pace than sales, annual rates of home price growth will remain strong,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.Affordability

Housing market getting hot throughout Durham Region

Durham Region Association of REALTORS® (DRAR) President Sandra O’Donohue reported 1,315 residential transactions in April 2015. This is an increase of 16.4 per cent from 1,130 in April of last year. In addition to a greater number of sales, there are also more homes listed. Durham saw 1,816 new listings enter the market in April 2015 compared to 1,709 in April 2014.

The average selling price in the Durham Region reached $440,151 last month, a 12.5 per cent increase compared to $391,351 in the same period last year. “Buyers are still seeing the value of home ownership,” explained O’Donohue, “ and low interest rates continue to be a factor in determining affordability”.

Avg Home Selling Price Durham Region

Homes in Durham are selling in an average of 15 days. “Homes are being listed for more than they were last year and are selling an average of 2 days sooner” reported O’Donohue.

"The housing market continues to gain momentum and we expect this trend to continue into the later months of summer,” stated O’Donohue. “We are seeing evidence of the importance of home ownership and the benefit of investing in the Durham Region”.

If you are looking for a house in Durham Region or are already a homeowner and wish to move to a new house in Pickering, Ajax, Whitby, Brooklin, Oshawa, Courtice or Bowmanville, please contact me for more information. Having sold real estate in Whitby and the Durham Region for over 20 years, I can help you with both - the buying and selling process. 

Randy Miller
Broker of Record
Royal Heritage Realty Ltd.
Offices in Pickering and in Whitby
905-430-1800

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Housing Bubble

 According to The Globe and Mail the Bank of Canada’s top brass assured a parliamentary committee that Canada’s bloated housing market has not become a risky asset bubble, despite the central bank’s own calculation that house prices nationwide are roughly 20 per cent overvalued.

“We don’t believe we’re in a bubble,” Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said in testimony Tuesday to the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance. He said Canada’s long-running boom in the housing market hasn’t been underpinned by the kind of rampant speculative buying that is the hallmark of an asset bubble.

“Our housing construction has stayed very much in line with our estimates of demographic demand,” he said. “There’s no excess.”

This despite the central bank’s own estimate, published last December in its Financial System Review, that Canada’s housing market is overpriced by between 10 and 30 per cent.

Mr. Poloz indicated that he believes the overvaluation is not a symptom of runaway prices and widespread investor speculation, but rather of ongoing strength in consumer demand spurred by historically low interest rates – rates that were cut by the central bank in order to keep consumer demand buoyant to support Canada’s economy during the Great Recession.

“This is one of the by-products of what we’ve been through. It’s not something that happened simply by itself,” he said. “It would be very unusual to have that and not have a degree of overvaluation.”

Mr. Poloz added that the overvaluation doesn’t necessarily mean the market is in need of a 10-to-30-per-cent downturn to bring it back into balance. He said that rising incomes as the economy gains momentum could help close the affordability gap, without a sharp drop in home values.

“We believe that as the fundamentals catch up with it, it will be sustained,” he said.

Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins added that the central bank still believes Canada’s overall housing market is “headed for a soft landing,” despite the sudden oil-shock upheaval that threatens considerable instability in Alberta’s until-recently booming housing sector.

“We’re not expecting whatever transpires in Alberta to create spillovers that, from a financial stability standpoint, would be worrisome for the rest of Canada.”

Mr. Poloz also defended the Bank of Canada’s surprise cut of its key interest rate in January, which critics fear may exacerbate Canadian households’ already hyper-extended mortgage and debt loads.

“On the surface, lower interest rates would be expected to promote more borrowing, which would increase this vulnerability,” he said in his opening statement to the committee. “However, in the near term, lower borrowing rates will actually mitigate this risk, by reducing payments for mortgage holders and giving us more economic growth and employment gains.”

“We believe that the best contribution the Bank can make to lowering financial stability risks through time is to help the economy return to full capacity and stable inflation sooner, rather than later.”

Mr. Poloz added that he believes the January rate cut, which reduced the bank’s key rate to 0.75 per cent from 1.00 per cent, is doing its job in helping the Canadian economy weather the effects of the oil shock – although he admitted that the evidence of the cut’s impact “is thin at this stage.”

“The evidence we have at present would be primarily in the export sector,” he said, where the resulting decline in the Canadian dollar has been boosting exporters’ Canadian-dollar cash flow and improving their price competitiveness in export markets.

Source:  Bank of Canada's Poloz dispels speculation of housing bubble by DAVID PARKINSON, The Globe and Mail


For more insight into the housing market within Durham Region, the Whitby real estate market, or the Brooklin real estate market, contact me. If you are an existing homeowner and are thinking about a, move, I can tell you what your house or condo is worth in today’s marketplace.

Randy Miller
Broker of Record

Royal Heritage Realty Ltd.
Offices in Pickering and in Whitby

905-430-1800

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Sales and Price Up Year-Over-Year in March 2015

April 7, 2015. Toronto Real Estate Board President Paul Etherington announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 8,940 sales in March 2015. This result represented an 11 per cent increase compared to March 2014. Sales were up for most major home types, both in the City of Toronto and the surrounding regions. New listings were also up, but by a lesser 5.5 per cent, indicating tighter market conditions.

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“Home sales increased compared to last year as the cost of home ownership remained affordable, with lower interest rates going a long way to mitigate the effect of rising home prices. However, a substantial amount of pent-up demand remains in place, especially as it relates to low-rise market segments. This suggests that strong competition between buyers, which has fuelled strong price growth so far this year, will continue to be experienced throughout the spring,” said Mr. Etherington.

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In March, the average selling price for all reported transactions was $613,933 – up 10 per cent year-over-year. The MLS® HPI Composite Index, which tracks benchmark homes with the same attributes from one period to the next, was up by 7.9 per cent. Average price growth was strongest for detached homes in the City of Toronto, at 15.9 per cent. Over the same period the detached MLS® HPI in the '416' area code increased 7.8 per cent.

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The MLS® HPI provides a clear indication of price growth due to market forces - the relationship between demand and supply. Comparing MLS® HPI growth to average price growth provides a sense of the changing mix of home types sold from one period to the next.

"It is clear that seller's market conditions in many parts of the GTA are driving price growth. However, looking at the detached market segment in the City of Toronto in particular, growth in the average selling price outstripped growth in the MLS® HPI. This points to the fact that the mix of detached homes sold this year compared to last has shifted towards more expensive properties," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.

Increased Average Home Prices in Durham Region

Durham Region Association of REALTORS® (DRAR) President Sandra O’Donohue reported 1,086 residential transactions in March 2015.

This resulted in an increase of 14.7 per cent from 947 in March of last year. “The number of sales increased significantly year-over-year, however, we are still seeing less inventory compared to the same period last year” reported O’Donohue. Durham saw 1,527 new listings enter the market in March 2015 compared to 1,553 in March 2014. “This makes for competition between buyers and drives home prices up” explained O’Donohue.

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The average selling price in the Durham Region reached $430,291 in March 2015. In March 2014, the average price of a home in the Durham Region was $380,267. “Low interest rates are keeping home ownership affordable even with the rise in home prices” explained O’Donohue. Average price growth was strongest for townhouses in the Durham Region, at 15.3 per cent compared to the same period last year.

Competition between buyers has also had an effect on the sale price over list price percentage. “We have seen homes sell for an average of 101 per cent of the asking price. This is a factor that is driving prices up across the Durham Region, and is an indicator of a strong seller’s market,” explained O’Donohue. In March of last year, the average home sold for 99 per cent of its asking price.

"Durham is still experiencing a seller’s market. However, low borrowing rates are keeping home ownership affordable” explained O’Donohue. “Buyers continue to view home ownership within the Durham Region as a great long-term investment”.

If you are looking for a house in Durham Region or are already a homeowner and wish to move to a new house in Pickering, Ajax, Whitby, Brooklin, Oshawa, Courtice or Bowmanville, please contact me for more information.

Having sold real estate in Whitby and the Durham Region for over 20 years, I can help you with both - the buying and selling process. 

Randy Miller
Broker of Record
Royal Heritage Realty Ltd.
Offices in Pickering and in Whitby
905-430-1800

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Quarterly Economic Forecast 2015

Here are the key highlights from the quarterly forecast:

-We continue to see the impact of lower oil prices play out in the Canadian economy. Lower gas prices expected to save Canadians households up to $800 in 2015

-$600 of that will be absorbed by the higher cost of imported consumer goods

-unemployment rate could reach 7% by the end of this year

-BOC expected to hold rates until the end of 2016- this will continue to drive a strong housing market!

-crude oil could hit a new low of $40US a barrel before landing in around $65US on average in 2016

-core inflations expected to be just shy of BOC's 2% target through 2015 and into 2016 

Click on the link below to read the full TD Quarterly Forecast:

http://www.td.com/document/PDF/economics/qef/qefmar2015_canada.pdf 

To learn more about local real estate market conditions in Whitby, Brooklin, Ajax, Pickering, Oshawa, Courtice and Bowmanville, please contact me. 

Randy Miller
Broker of Record

Royal Heritage Realty Ltd.
Offices in Pickering and in Whitby

905-430-1800


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Rising house prices

Housing markets across much of province could be boosted by slumping oil and improving U.S. economy, economist predicts.

Toronto’s record house prices could soar a further 17 per cent by the end of 2017 as the lack of supply in the face of unrelenting demand continues to drive prices far beyond the rate of inflation, says the chief economist of Central 1 credit union.

Long-time housing watcher Helmut Pastrick says those who caution that Toronto’s market is in bubble territory and about to burst are based on “inadequate models” that ignore some key basics.

“The principal drivers of home prices are market demand and supply fundamentals. Toronto’s population is growing and supply is limited. Prices will keep rising until the next economic recession, whenever that is.”

Barring any unforeseen global crises, that’s at least two years off, predicts Pastrick, who’s studied the housing market for 40 years, 18 years as chief economist with Credit 1, the umbrella organization for about 130 credit unions in Ontario and B.C.

Ontario housing markets, with the exception of Toronto, have largely underperformed since 2001. But that’s now likely to change in the face of the “economic seismic shift” of slumping oil prices that may be a drag on the Canadian economy but a boon for Ontario exporters and manufacturers, says the economic forecast being released Thursday.

He anticipates that Toronto home prices, which averaged $573,183 in 2014 could soar to $670,000 by the end of 2017. Ontario house prices, which averaged $430,984 in 2014, could hit $496,000 during the same time.

Southwestern Ontario, and especially communities with a strong manufacturing base such as Windsor and Sarnia, are likely to see an uptick in jobs and economic growth which could play out in strong house sales and above-inflation price increases to the end of 2017, he adds.

Regional markets around the GTA — such as Kitchener-Waterloo, Barrie, Hamilton and the Niagara Peninsula — could also see a surge in sales partly as a result of Toronto’s tight market. That could translate into house price gains in the 16 per cent range over the next three years, says Pastrick.

The Canadian Real Estate Association recently predicted that low oil prices could result in a 1.1 per cent decline in national home sales through 2015, but a 2 per cent increase in average prices.

Read the full article: http://www.thestar.com/business/2015/03/25/torontos-record-house-prices-to-rise-further-by-2017.html By: Susan Pigg Business Reporter, Published on Wed Mar 25 2015

To learn more about local real estate market conditions in Whitby, Brooklin, Ajax, Pickering, Oshawa, Courtice and Bowmanville, please contact me.

Randy Miller
Broker of Record

Royal Heritage Realty Ltd.
Offices in Pickering and in Whitby

905-430-1800

 

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March 4, 2015. Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 6,338 home sales in February 2015, that’s a substantial 11.3 per cent year-over-year increase compared to February 2014.  Large annual increases in transactions were noted for most major home types, in the City of Toronto and surrounding GTA regions.


Toronto MLSsales.jpg

Mr. Paul Etherington, TREB President, said that even with the record low temperatures last month, there was still an increase in the number of people purchasing homes in the GTA.  This speaks to the importance households place on home ownership and the fact that buyers continue to view ownership housing as a quality long-term investment in which they can live.

Toronto MLSNewListings.jpg

The overall supply of homes for sale was down by 8.7 per cent compared to the same count in February 2014.  This means that market conditions became tighter, leading to more competition between buyers.


AvResaleHomePrice.jpg

The overall average selling price for February 2015 home sales was $596,163 – up by 7.8 per cent compared to the average for February 2014. In the City of Toronto, the average detached selling price moved above $1 million dollars for the first time in a calendar month. 


MLSSalesTrendline.jpg

NewListingsTrendline.jpg
AvPriceTrendline.jpg

Affordability.jpg

“The strong year-over-year price growth we experienced in February points to the robust demand for ownership housing in the GTA, coupled with a constrained supply of homes for sale in some market segments, especially where low-rise home types like singles, semis and townhouses are concerned,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis. 

Buyers continue to see home ownership as a great investment

Sandra O’Donohue, President of Durham Region Association of  REALTORS®,  reported 728 residential transactions in February 2015. This result is up 13.9 per cent from 639 in February of last year. Inventory remained almost the same year-over-year with 1,085 new listings entering the market compared to 1,073 in February of last year.

DurhamHousingMarket.jpg

The average selling price in the Durham Region reached $420,718 in February 2015. O’Donahue said that the average home price has continued to rise into 2015, representing a 12.8 per cent increase from February 2014. “The driving force behind the higher sale prices is the shortage of inventory compared to the demand of buyers. This trend is what we call a seller’s market” explained O’Donohue. Another indicator of a seller’s market is the amount of time a home spends on the market before it is sold. Homes are selling in an average of 17 days in the Durham Region, which is significantly faster than last year with an average of 23 days on the market.

Even with the robust price growth, there is strong demand for home ownership in the Durham Region which is demonstrated by the higher number of sales and the climbing sale prices. So buyers continue to view home ownership within the Durham Region as a great long-term investment.

If you are looking for a house in Durham Region or are already a homeowner and wish to move to a new house in Pickering, Ajax, Whitby, Brooklin, Oshawa, Courtice or Bowmanville, please contact me for more information.

Randy Miller
Broker of Record

Royal Heritage Realty Ltd.
Offices in Pickering and in Whitby

905-430-1800

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Toronto

Toronto realtors look at it this way: Home prices may be considerably higher, but borrowing costs are lower.

In a mid-month report released today, the Toronto Real Estate Board said sales in the region surged almost 15 per cent in the first two weeks of February from the same period last year.

The average price, meanwhile, jumped 10.3 per cent to $602,110, while new listings rose at a slower pace of 3.5 per cent.

“While home prices are higher compared to this time last year, borrowing costs are lower,” the group’s president, Paul Etherington, said in releasing the report.

Behind the price surge are developments such as bidding wars.

“With tight market conditions continuing to prevail in most parts of the Greater Toronto Area, especially where low-rise home types are concerned, it is no surprise that we continue to see strong competition between buyers leading to robust annual rates of price growth,” said Jason Mercer, the group’s director of market analysis.

In the full month of January, Toronto sales rose 6.1 per cent, and the average price 4.9 per cent.

Canada’s housing market isn’t so much a national market, but rather a string of regions.

And, as The Globe and Mail’s Tamsin McMahon reports, the nature of those regions is changing markedly amid the oil slump.

Calgary, for example, which sits in the heart of Canada’s oil patch, was not that long ago the hottest market in the country.

But sales there are plunging now – down 35 per cent in January – along with the price of oil.

National sales fell 3.1 per cent last month from December. But if you strip out Calgary and Alberta, sales rose by 1.9 per cent.

Having said that, sales in certain other parts of Canada weren’t “especially hot either,” as 15 of the 26 markets measured saw no increase or an outright drop in January from a year earlier, noted chief economist Douglas Porter of BMO Nesbitt Burns.

“Canada’s housing market is cooling notably, largely because of the sudden deep chill in the previously hottest cities,” Mr. Porter said.

“However, there is still plenty of regional variation churning below the surface. We suspect that with borrowing costs still plumbing the depths and many provincial economies holding up, any housing correction will be a specific regional affair.”

In a new report released today, Mr. Porter's colleague at BMO, senior economist Sal Guatieri, said he expects house prices across Canada to rise 2 per cent this year, as the increases in Toronto and Vancouver overshadow the troubles of Calgary.

“However, rising interest rates in 2016 will restrain prices in these two cities,” he added.

When you strip out Vancouver and Toronto, Mr. Guatieri said, home prices “appear reasonable,” meaning less chance of a “severe” national correction.

But the fast pace of gains in Vancouver and Toronto, he warned, “raise the odds of a correction if economic conditions turn for the worse.”

Source: by Michael Babad, The Globe and Mail, Toronto’s housing surge: Prices jump 10%, borrowing costs ease

Randy Miller
Broker of Record

Royal Heritage Realty Ltd.
Offices in Pickering and in Whitby

905-430-1800

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low mortgage rates

Nearly half of Canadians are planning to buy a home in the next five years, survey says. More than 15 per cent are saying cheaper mortgage rates will allow them to make the purchase sooner than expected.


On 1 February 2015 The Globe and Mail reported: Younger Canadians, who are struggling with far more debt than their parents did at the same age, are the most likely to respond to falling rates. More than a fifth of millennials told a Bank of Montreal home buyers survey that they have shortened their time-frame for buying a home because of lower rates and 75 per cent said they were planning on making a purchase within the next five years.

Regionally, the demand among buyers is strongest in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, where the combination of low interest rates and cheaper oil prices are poised to put more money in the pockets of consumers. Nearly a fifth of residents told pollsters that they would speed up their home purchase because of low interest rates.

In contrast, just 13 per cent of residents in Quebec and 12 per cent in Alberta said lower rates were having an impact on their buying decisions. Plunging oil prices have made Alberta consumers more cautious about jumping into the housing market this year, while a high vacancy rates and a glut of newly built condos in Quebec is pushing more potential first-time buyers into the rental market, according to Desjardins Group.

Mortgage rates have been falling since last week, when the Bank of Canada shocked markets by cutting interest rates by 25 basis points ( a basis point is a hundredth of 1 per cent.) Lenders soon followed, with major banks dropping five-year fixed rates mortgages to as low as 2.84 per cent and this week cutting their prime rates by 15 basis points, which quickly pushed variable-rate mortgages among the Big Six banks as low as 2.25 per cent.

Many analysts had predicted that interest rates would rise this year, so the central bank’s unexpected decision to slash rates is widely expected to reignite the country’s cooling housing market. “Given the negative impact of lower oil prices on the Canadian economy, interest rates are likely to remain low for some time, supporting home sales, especially in Vancouver and Toronto where affordability is an issue”, said BMO senior economist Sal Guatieri.

But with mortgage rates falling only slightly and more Canadians telling the BMO survey they were planning to use lower rates to pay down their debt rather than load up on new ones, cheaper rates are expected to have a modest impact on the housing market.

Shortly before the Bank of Canada cut its target overnight lending rate, more than half of Canadians told an earlier BMO poll that cheaper rates would make them more likely to buy a home, though most said the drop would need to be 10 per cent or more to have a significant impact on their buying plans.

Source: Tamsin McMahon, The Globe and Mail

If a move is in your future, let’s sit down and talk about your plans. Contact me today!

Randy Miller
Broker of Record
Royal Heritage Realty Ltd.
Offices in Pickering and in Whitby
905-430-1800


Visit my blog: https://whitbybrooklinhomes.wordpress.com/

Whitby Brooklin Homes

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January, 2015. Greater Toronto Area Realtors® reported 92,867 residential sales through the TorontoMLS system in 2014, including 4,446 in December. The calendar year 2014 sales result represented a 6.7 per cent increase over the 2013 sales figure of 87,049 and was just short of the record set in 2007. 

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According to Toronto Real Estate Board President Paul Etherington, GTA households realize that home purchases have been a quality long-term investment. While home prices certainly increased substantially in 2014, the purchase of an average priced home remained affordable, in terms of the average household's ability to comfortably cover their monthly mortgage payments.

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The average selling price continued to grow on a year-over-year basis in calendar year 2014, with an 8.4 per cent increase over calendar year 2013 to $566,726.  This included a seven per cent increase in the December 2014 average selling price to $556,602.  Throughout 2014, annual increases in the average selling price and the MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark were consistently reported on a monthly basis for most market segments, from detached homes through to condominium apartments. 
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Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis, said the reason for the strong price growth in 2014 was the constrained supply of listings. Especially for singles, semis and town houses. This resulted in more competition between buyers and more aggressive offers.

Record High Sales And Average Prices For 2014 in Durham Region

Durham Region Association of REALTORS® President Sandra O’Donohue reported 10,841 residential sales through the MLS® System in 2014, including 478 in December. The 2014 sales result represents a 5.1 per cent increase compared to 10,312 sales in 2013.
Along with a record high number of sales, the average selling price for 2014 also set a record for Durham Region. In 2013 the average selling price was $357,529, while the average selling price for the calendar year 2014 reached $391,692, an increase of 9.6 per cent.
This is also a result of high demand for homes coupled with a shortage of listings. O’Donohue said that the 2014 sales figures show the importance of home ownership for Durham households.

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Randy Miller
Broker of Record
Royal Heritage Realty Ltd.
Offices in Pickering and in Whitby

905-831-2222
 

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December, 2014.
Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 6,519 residential transactions through the TorontoMLS system in November 2014. This result was up by 2.6 per cent compared to 6,354 sales reported in November 2013.  Through the first 11 months of 2014, total sales amounted to 88,462 - up 6.6 per cent compared to the same period in 2013. 

Toronto MLS sales comparison.JPG

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While the trend of year-over-year sales growth continued, the supply of listings remained constrained, with active listings at the end of November down in comparison to last year.

Sales trendline.JPG

New listings trendline.JPG

"Even with a constrained supply of homes for sale in many parts of the Greater Toronto Area, buyers continued to get deals done last month. Households remain upbeat about home ownership because monthly mortgage payments remain affordable relative to accepted lending standards. This is coupled with the fact that housing has proven to be a quality long-term investment," stated Toronto Real Estate Board President Paul Etherington.

average price.JPG

The average selling price for November transactions was up by 7.4 per cent year-over-year to $577,936.  The year-to-date average price was up by 8.4 per cent to $567,198. The MLS(R) Home Price Index Composite Benchmark price for November was up by 7.7 per cent compared to a year earlier.  

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Continuing Price Growth in Durham Region

Jane Hurst, President of Durham Region Association of REALTORS® (DRAR), reported 740 sales through the MLS® System in November 2014. This is a 2.8 per cent increase compared to 720 sales in November 2013. Through the first 11 months of the year, 10,367 residential sales were reported, up 5 per cent compared to 9,872 over the same period last year.

The average selling price for November transactions was up 9.7 per cent year-over-year to $404,196. The year-to-date average selling price was also up by 9.7 per cent bringing the average price for the first 11 months of 2014 to $392,027.

Hurst said that the strong average price growth experienced throughout 2014 has been consistent with a higher demand for homes than the market could supply. There is also a strong competition between buyers which puts upward pressure on selling prices. This trend is expected to continue into the early months of 2015.


Durham Sept 2014

For more insight into the houses within Durham Region, the Whitby real estate market, or the Brooklin real estate market, contact me. If you are an existing homeowner and are thinking about a, move, I can tell you what your house or condo is worth in today’s marketplace.

Randy Miller
Broker of Record
Royal Heritage Realty Ltd., Brokerage
905-430-1800

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Canadian Real Estate Market News


Home sales, prices to rise

 

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. has released a new report with everything you could possibly want to know about projected sales and prices across the country, forecasting a “steady” showing nationwide next year, followed by “some moderation” in 2016.

 

Housing starts in Canada, it predicted today, will range next year from 172,800 to 204,000, and in 2016 from 168,000 to 205,800.

 

Resales next year will come in between 457,000 and 507,300, and in 2016 between 448,000 and 508,000.

Prices are particularly interesting.

 

Average prices this year, which, of course, differ widely across Canada, are expected to range from $401,600 to $405,400, which means a so-called point forecast of $404,800.

 

Next year, according to CMHC, prices will be between $403,600 and $417,800, for an increase in the point measure to $410,600.

 

Then in 2016, expect prices to range between $407,300 and $424,500, or a point forecast of $417,300.

West to east, here’s what CMHC forecasts in terms of average prices:


  • British Columbia: Average resale price to rise to $566,300 in 2015 and $573,000 in 2016.
  • Alberta: Average to rise to $407,800 and $417,500.
  • Saskatchewan: Average to rise to $303,000 and $309,300.
  • Manitoba: Average to rise to $272,600 and $278,800.
  • Ontario: Average to rise to $435,900 and $443,800.
  • Quebec: Average to rise $270,800 and $276,600.
  • New Brunswick: Average to dip to $161,500 and $161,000.
  • Nova Scotia: Average to rise to $216,000 and $217,000.
  • Prince Edward Island: Average to slip to $157,000 in both years.
  • Newfoundland and Labrador: Average to rise to $294,000 and $298,000.

 

These findings, of course, mask the wide ranges from city to city, which CMHC also looked at.

 

For example, the average in Calgary, forecast to jump 5 per cent this year to $459,000, should rise further, to $472,000 in 2015 and $483,000 a year later.

 

Source: By MICHAEL BABAD, The Globe and Mail,

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/from-west-to-east-a-look-at-projected-house-price-gains-across-canada/article21379179/

 

Randy Miller 

Broker  

Re/Max Rouge River Realty Ltd., Brokerage  

905-668-1800 or 905-427-1400

 

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September appears to have been another strong month for Canadian home sales. An article in the Globe and Mail from last week reported that the number of existing homes that changed hands in Canada during September came in 10.6 per cent higher than a year earlier, topping expectations.

 

The average sale price rose 5.9 per cent to $408,795.

 

On a seasonally adjusted basis sales are 1.4 per cent lower than they were in August, which is the first monthly decline since January, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), which represents realtors.

 

But sales are still higher than economists predicted. Just before the numbers were released Bank of Montreal economist Sal Guatieri said that he was expecting sales to be up 6 per cent year over year. And Beth Crosbie, the president of CREA, stated in a press release that she thinks part of the reason for the monthly decline in sales was a shortage of affordably priced single-family homes.

 

September’s reasonably strong showing also comes at a time when many economists have been waiting for sales to slow. But, fuelled by low mortgage rates, the housing market has continued to surprise to the upside and policy makers are keeping an eye on it. Currency strategists at JPMorgan Chase said in a research note on Tuesday that they expect Canadian growth to lag that of the U.S. largely because of slowing housing activity here, but then noted that the slowdown has been elusive. “Recent data has been surprisingly strong, and inconsistent with the Bank of Canada’s soft-landing thesis, but we expect it to soften from this autumn,” they wrote.

 

Read the full article here >>> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/existing-home-sales-rise-106-outpace-expectations/article21105802/

Source: Tara Perkins, The Globe and Mail


 

Randy Miller 

Broker  

Re/Max Rouge River Realty Ltd., Brokerage  

905-668-1800 or 905-427-1400



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Canadian Real Estate Market stays hot


There are early indications that September appears to have been another strong month for Canadian home sales.


That is based on data that some local real estate boards have released in recent days about how their housing markets fared last month. The number of existing homes that changed hands in Toronto was up 10.9 per cent from a year earlier, in Calgary it was up almost 12 per cent, and in Vancouver 17.7 per cent. And that’s in comparison to a reasonably strong month: sales in September, 2013, were slightly above the 10-year average for that month.


A comprehensive picture won’t be available until the Canadian Real Estate Board, which represents realtors, compiles all of the local statistics and releases national September data on Oct. 15. Many cities have not released their numbers publicly yet, and the ones that have tend to be in some of the country’s stronger housing markets. Quebec and the Atlantic region, where more markets are struggling, are not represented below.


But the strength of Calgary, Toronto and Vancouver’s housing markets tends to pull up the national averages, and so the numbers here suggest that the national figures will point to a market that still has momentum.


CALGARY HOUSING MARKET


-Sales were up almost 12 per cent in September from a year ago. The local real estate board says the unexpected strength came from a surge in condo and townhouse sales.


-Condo sales so far this year are 21 per cent higher than during the same period last year, while the number of sales of detached homes has risen by just 7 per cent. Affordability is driving the shift. Two years ago, 44 per cent of the detached houses that sold from January through to the end of September went for less than $400,000, according to the real estate board. So far this year only one quarter of the houses have sold for less than that.


-The average price of a detached house in the city was $567,653 in September, up 10.81 per cent from a year earlier. The average price of a condo was $326,264, up 9.21 per cent. For townhouses it was $352,813, up 4.21 per cent.


-The average length of time it takes to sell a home continues to tick downwards. Year-to-date the average number of days a home is on the market before it sells (for all types of homes) is 34, down from 42 in the same period last year.


TORONTO HOUSING MARKET


-Sales were up 10.9 per cent from a year earlier. So far this year sales in the city are 6.9 per cent higher than during the same period last year.


-The average selling price was $573,676, up 7.7 per cent from a year earlier. The average selling price year-to-date is $563,813, up 8.5 per cent from last year.


-“If the current pace of sales growth remains in place, we could be flirting with a new record for residential sales reported by (Toronto Real Estate Board) members this year,” TREB’s director of market analysis, Jason Mercer, stated in a press release.


-The average selling price of detached homes in the downtown area covered by the 416 area code was $951,792, up 11.5 per cent from a year earlier. For condos in the same area it was $395,505, up 9.2 per cent.


DURHAM REGION 

No Fall for Durham Housing Market


Durham Region Association of REALTORS® (DRAR) reported 970 sales in September 2014, which represents a 14.8 per cent increase compared to 845 sales in September 2013. On a year-to-date basis, sales were up 5 per cent annually through the first three quarters of the year.


President Jane Hurst states that the increase in sales activity stems from increasing buyer interest. "We also saw a 21.7 per cent increase in the number of resale homes entering the market since last month". The number of new listings that entered the market in September 2014 was 1,471 compared to 1,209 in August 2014.


There was also a large increase in the average selling price in Durham. The average price of resale homes in Durham Region in the month of September reached was $401,713. This represents a 13.6 per cent increase over the same period last year.


Avg. Selling Price Durham Region


Property values continue to rise, people are still willing to buy and borrowing rates are low which keeps home ownership affordable.  Everything combined makes Durham Region a great place to work and live.


(Source: The Globe and Mail, Tara Perkins)


If you are looking for a house in Durham Region or are already a homeowner and wish to move to a new house in Pickering, Ajax, Whitby, Brooklin, Oshawa, Courtice or Bowmanville, please contact me for more information.

 

I can answer all of your questions, help you find the right neighbourhood and the perfect house at a great price. Having sold real estate full time in Whitby and the surrounding areas for over 20 years, you can assured of exceptional local market knowledge and  skilled representation. Nothing beats experience.

 


Randy Miller 

Broker   

Re/Max Rouge River Realty Ltd., Brokerage 

905-668-1800 or 905-427-1400


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There is no fear of a housing bubble, the CEO of the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation says in a speech on Friday, Sept.19th. Prices of some Canadian homes are certainly too high, but there is no immediate catastrophe looming for the country’s housing market.


Evan Siddall, who has been the CEO of CMHC since January, was speaking at a conference in Montreal held by the Global Risk Institute.


According to an article by Tara Perkins in The Globe and Mail, the key points that Canadian homeowners and financial players should take away from his remarks, are:


1. CMHC isn’t “overly” worried about a housing bubble right now – but that comes with two caveats.

 

2. CMHC is still looking at having banks shoulder more of the risk from mortgage defaults.

 

3. CMHC is considering what it could do to take some steam out of the market if house price growth remains strong or picks up.

 

4. CMHC may start to publish the results of its stress tests.


Read the full article here >>>
 No fear of housing bubble: CMHC by Tara Perkins


To learn more about local real estate market conditions in Whitby, Brooklin, Ajax, Pickering, Oshawa, Courtice and Bowmanville, please contact me. 

 

 

 

Randy Miller

Broker   

Re/Max Rouge River Realty Ltd., Brokerage

905-668-1800 or 905-427-1400


 

 

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As reported in The Globe and Mail, policy makers in Ottawa have been taking some comfort from signs Canadian home prices have been moderating lately. They shouldn’t.

 

If Toronto-Dominion Bank economist Diana Petramala is correct, home prices might be on their way up again. That would be disappointing news to those in Ottawa who, until recently, were fairly certain they had successfully steered the housing market toward a soft landing. Under that scenario house prices were supposed to slowly lose some steam, rather than go through a major correction. Most economists agree that home prices are inflated, and, coupled with high consumer debt levels, pose a risk to the economy.

 

The Canadian Real Estate Association, which represents realtors and tracks the market by way of the MLS, released data Monday that showed that the number of newly listed homes fell 1.2 per cent from July to August. “Led by Greater Toronto, new supply was down in about 60 per cent of local markets,” CREA said.

 

“The number of homes for sale have not kept up with demand and the market moved more in favour of sellers,” Ms. Petramala wrote in a research note. “We continue to be surprised by the lack of listings on the market. The sales-to-listings ratio has moved back to the level reached at the end of last year, when prices were growing 8 per cent to 9 per cent year-over-year. This suggests that following four months of moderation, home-price growth may catch a second wind through the fall months.”

 

In Durham Region the home price growth continued in August. There were 919 sales in August 2014, down 3.8 per cent compared to 955 sales in August 2013. "However, year-to-date, Durham Region has seen 7,704 sales, up 3.7 per cent compared to 7,430 over the same period last year" explained Durham Region Association of REALTORS® (DRAR) President Jane Hurst.

 

August Average Home Prices Durham Region

 

The average price of resale homes in Durham Region in the month of August was $388,690. "August's average price is 7.7 per cent higher than August of last year" stated Hurst. The number of new listings that entered the market in August was 1,209, down 9.4 per cent from 1,323 in August 2013. Listings have decreased and prices have increased over the past year.

 

Hurst stated that so far this year, prices grow, sales remain steady and listings decrease in comparison to last year.


Sources:

 

To learn more about local market conditions, or insight into prices for real estate in Whitby, Brooklin or other areas within Durham Region, please contact me.


Randy Miller

Broker   

Re/Max Rouge River Realty Ltd., Brokerage

905-668-1800 or 905-427-1400


 

 

 

 

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The sizzling summer real estate market appears set to remain hot right through the fall.

 

John Andrew, a professor at Queen’s University, is watching with interest for the August numbers that the Canadian Real Estate Association will report in the coming days.

 

Low mortgage rates fuelled property sales in cities across Canada, with Toronto, Vancouver and Calgary seeing the most action, he says.

 

Prof. Andrew, who is the director of the executive seminars on corporate and investment real estate at Queen’s, predicts September and October will bring more of the same.

 

“I don’t think we’re going to see a significant downturn in sales until we see an uptick in mortgage rates.”


And when he says an uptick, he’s not referring to a month or two of gently rising rates – he’s talking about a sustained upward trend.

 

The Toronto Real Estate Board reported that sales rose 2.8 per cent in the Greater Toronto Area in August from a year earlier, while the average selling price rose 8.9 per cent. Prof. Andrew says the increase in sales in August came on a drop in listings. Sales in Durham Region, including Whitby and Brooklin have produced similar rising sales figures.

 

The market is still fairly balanced, he says, but it could tip over to a sellers’ market. He wonders if that, in turn, will encourage more homeowners to list their properties for sale. “As soon as people realize it’s a sellers’ market, they say ‘maybe it’s a good time to sell our house.”

 

Prof. Andrew notes the contrast between this year and last, when a sudden shift in the market came right after Labour Day. Last summer, mortgage rates edged up between June and September. Many people hadn’t been paying attention and that led to a sudden burst of buying in September when people were spurred on by the fear that rates would climb even higher.

 

Fluctuating bond yields have brought about the movement in mortgage rates over the past year.

 

The professor also points out that he used to make a note in his calendar of the days when the Bank of Canada’s interest rate committee was set to meet. He could expect a lot of calls from media on those days. More recently, those meetings have become a non-event, he says, because no one expects the central bank to make a change.


The low mortgage rates expected for the remainder of 2014 create an opportunity for all participants including first time buyers, move up buyers, investors, or by simply allowing people with existing mortgages to pay them off sooner.

 

For opportunities in Whitby and Brooklin and throughout Durham Region, contact me.


 

Randy Miller

Broker  

Re/Max Rouge River Realty Ltd., Brokerage

905-668-1800 or 905-427-1400

 



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House for rent


As a growing segment of the Canadian population watch house prices rise consistently and view the stock market as being far more risky because of movements up and down, owning a rental property seems far more appealing. Some people set out to become a landlord and purchase an investment property, while others choose to retain and rent out their existing home.

 

With a plan in place and the help of professionals,  becoming a landlord can be a wise investment. For many, having a few rental properties is a good substitute for pension or savings toward retirement.

 

Thousands of Canadians rely on residential income properties, whether close to home or abroad, to help them feather their financial nests.

 

Done right, investors stand to reap big rewards over the long haul, industry experts say. But property investment can also come at a heavy price to those who aren’t prepared to learn the market and do the less-than glamorous work of a landlord.

 

If talk about housing bubbles gives you ulcers, or you aren’t willing to answer the phone at 2 a.m. when the tenants call to tell you the pipes have burst, then investing in real estate might not be right for you.

 

“It’s like any business that you want to enter. It’s all about time, money and expertise. If you don’t have the time, you at least have to have the expertise and you have to have the money to make it fly,” says Phil McDowell, a mortgage broker in Calgary.

 

For those who are considering investing in a rental property, there are a few basic rules to keep in mind in order to mitigate the risk of the deal turning sour, says Melanie Reuter, director of research for the Canadian branch of the Real Estate Investment Network (REIN), an investor advisory organization based in British Columbia. The key is to look for a community or region that shows clear signs of growth and economic sustainability.  GTA rental vacancy rates are low, as  steady influx of residents moves to Toronto. Here in Durham Region, vacancy rates are about 2.3 per cent.

 

Ms. Reuter says it is equally important for investors to have a clear idea of the true monthly costs, including mortgage, interest and property tax, as well as potential extras, such as repairs, on-going maintenance costs, condo fees, property management fees, etc. She recommends those considering property investment should also set aside an emergency fund to cover repairs and maintenance, or unexpected vacancies.

 

Many investors choose to save money by doing the management work themselves, but that comes with its own costs. Landlords should expect to put effort into finding good tenants, avoiding bad ones and fielding the overnight phone calls when something goes wrong.

 

“We’ve all heard stories of someone who had the tenant from hell,” says Jason Abbott, a financial planner and president of Wealthdesigns.ca Inc. in Toronto. A real-estate investment fund may be a better option for someone who wants to be involved in real estate without having to manage a property or assume all of the risk, Mr. Abbott says. The one downside is that it can be a lot harder than more traditional funds to access your money should you need it.  “Mr. Britton recommends his clients treat property investment as they would any business. That includes hiring a tax professional to help them report an income property, including expenses, revenues and asset appreciation. Not reporting an income property can land an investor in hot water with Canada Revenue Agency.

 

“If you choose not to report, you are taking the chance you won’t be found out. If you are, it is not going to be pretty,” Mr. Britton says.

 

Mortgage rules require investors to have a minimum down payment of 20 per cent and to have proof through tax returns of the their income and assets. In most cases, it is important to have secure employment to prove you can cover a portion of the mortgage at any time. “You should be able to demonstrate that you’ve got a reserve fund available to you should you have a major repair or if the tenant skips,” Mr. McDowell says.  Homeowners who are interested in an income-generating property, but don’t have 20 per cent to put down, may want to consider a basement or suite within their own home, he adds. A primary residence with a rental suite requires a 5-per-cent down payment.

 

A growing number of my clients are purchasing investment properties to secure their future. Purchasing an investment property is a business decision and not a rash or emotional purchase. I can help you avoid the pitfalls and mistakes when buying an investment property here in Whitby, Brooklin, Oshawa, Courtice or Bowmanville. The expansion of Highway 407 is madding Durham Region more accessible and it is boosting house prices and rental rates. The refurbishment of Darlington will create a demand for rentals, creating opportunity for investors. If you are ready to buy an investment property and become a successful investor, contact me for  a consultation.


 



Randy Miller

Broker  

Re/Max Rouge River Realty Ltd., Brokerage

905-668-1800 or 905-427-1400

 

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Move up market

 

Having trouble moving into a bigger home? You’re not alone. An article, published in The Globe and Mail, explains why.

 

Prices of bigger and more expensive homes in Canada are rising significantly faster than those of cheaper properties, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce economist Benjamin Tal has found. The phenomenon is limiting peoples’ ability to trade up, and causing many to choose to renovate their existing home instead.


The trend is pronounced in cities including Toronto, Ottawa, Calgary and Edmonton. Spending on home renovations as a percentage of total residential investment is at its highest level on record.


And the “move up” market is becoming paralyzed at the same time that tighter mortgage rules and higher home prices have knocked many potential first-time buyers out of the market, Mr. Tal says. “The homeownership rate among Canadians aged 25-35 (first-time homebuyers) has fallen from 55 per cent in 2012 to the current 50 per cent,” he says in a report to be released Monday. The rate has remained stable for people over age 35.


Click here to read the full article > ‘Move up’ market taking hit as prices of bigger homes swell by Tara Perkins

 

Here within Durham Region, the market is not as hectic or challenging. Good houses take time to find, so I advise people to plan ahead and to be patient. If you are thinking or a move, contact me for a consultation. We can meet, discuss your plans and come up with strategy that will get you the next home you desire, without paying too much.


 

Randy Miller

Broker

Re/Max Rouge River Realty Ltd., Brokerage

905-668-1800 or 905-427-1400

 

 

 



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Sale sign Remax


RBC economist forecasts house prices to decline as interest rates will inevitably increase.  These forecasts are for 2015/2016 and are also nationwide.

 

An economist at Canada’s biggest bank says home prices could start falling in 2016 if interest rates return to more normal levels. And he warned that, in the meantime, what goes up will likely come down if salaries and incomes don’t keep pace.

 

(Source: The Globe and Mail, RBC economist predicts home price declines in 2016 as rates rise by Tara Perkins)

 

For local market insights don't hesitate to contact me

Randy Miller
Broker
Re/Max Rouge River Realty Ltd., Brokerage
905-668-1800 or 905-427-1400 

 

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