Randy Miller

Broker Of Record

Urban Avenue Realty Ltd., Brokerage

Whitby & Brooklin Real Estate

Office 905-430-1800

Direct 905-430-9444

Email: randy@randymiller.ca

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housing market outlook

According to the CMHC, housing markets are expected to remain stable for the rest of the year, and starts are expected to moderate in 2015 and 2016.

“Lower oil prices are contributing to disparities between provincial housing markets. A slowdown in housing starts and resale transactions in oil-producing provinces such as Alberta will be partly offset by increased housing market activity in other provinces, such as Ontario and British Columbia, which benefit from the positive impacts of declining energy prices, a lower Canadian dollar and continued low mortgage rates,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist for CMHC, in the news release.

The average price for a home sold through the MLS system is forecast to fall between $402,139 and $439,589 in 2015, with a point forecast of $422,129. Looking ahead to 2016, the average MLS price is expected to range between $398,191 and $457,200, with a point forecast of $428,325.

Canada-wide, home sales via the MLS system are believed to range between 437,100 and 494,500 units for 2015, with a point forecast of 475,400 units. In 2016, sales are to expected to range from 424,500 units to 491,300 units, with a point forecast of 469,000 units.

Housing starts are expected to decline by 4.1 per cent – and range between 166,540 and 188,580 units -- in 2015. Prices, meanwhile, are expected to increase by 3.4 per cent.

As for the near future, housing starts are expected to range between 162,840 and 190,830 in 2016.

In Ontario, all eyes are on the GTA housing market, which continues to see strong sale and price growth.

Demand for existing homes in the GTA is expected to remain strong. The CMHC is also forecasting stronger interest in higher density dwellings and conversely, an uptick in home rentals over ownership.

“An improving economy will be more supportive of the Ontario housing market in 2015 than it has been in the recent past,” said Ted Tsiakopoulos, CMHC’s Ontario Regional Economist. “However, as mortgage carrying costs continue to grow, particularly for single family homes, demand will increasingly shift to more affordable housing.”

Source: CMHC.ca

If you want to learn more about the local housing market of Whitby, Brooklin or other areas within Durham Region, contact me! 

Randy Miller
Broker of Record
Royal Heritage Realty Ltd.
Offices in Pickering and in Whitby
905-430-1800

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Rising Home Sales

According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), the average sale price for an existing home in Canada rose 9.5 per cent, year-over-year, to $448,862 in April. Excluding the two major cities, Vancouver and Toronto, the increase was much more modest at 3.4 per cent to $339,893.

The number of home sales processed through the MLS® Systems of Canadian real estate Boards and Associations rose 2.3 per cent in April 2015 compared to March. This marks the third consecutive month-over-month increase and raises national activity back to where it was during most of the second half of last year.

April sales were up from the previous month in two-thirds of all local markets, led by the Greater Toronto Area, the surrounding Golden Horseshoe region, and Montreal.

 “In recent years, the seasonal pattern for home sales and listings has become amplified in places where listings are in short supply relative to demand,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “This particularly stands out in and around Toronto. Sellers there have increasingly delayed listing their home until spring. Once listed, it sells fairly quickly. Sales over the year as a whole in Southern Ontario are likely being constrained to some degree by a short supply of single family homes. However, the busy spring home buying and selling season has become that much busier as a result of sellers waiting until winter has faded before listing.”

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity in April stood 10.0 per cent above levels reported in April 2014. This marks just the third time ever that sales during the month of April topped 50,000 transactions.

Sales were up on a year-over-year basis in about 70 per cent of all local markets, led by activity in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia, Greater Toronto, and Montreal. Of the 18 local markets that set new records for the month of April, all but two are in Southern Ontario.

The number of newly listed homes was virtually unchanged (+0.1 per cent) in April compared to March. Below the surface, new supply rose in almost two thirds of all local markets, led by a big rebound in Halifax-Dartmouth following a sharp drop in March. This was offset by declines in Greater Vancouver, Victoria, and the Okanagan Region, as well as by a continuing pullback in new supply in Calgary. New listings in Calgary have dropped by one-third from their multi-year high at the end of last year to their current multi-year low.

The national sales-to-new listings ratio was 55.3 per cent in April, up from 50.4 per cent three months earlier as the ratio has steadily risen along with sales so far this year.

A sales-to-new listings ratio between 40 and 60 per cent is generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions, with readings above and below this range indicating sellers’ and buyers’ markets respectively. The ratio was within this range in the majority of local housing markets in April.

The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents the number of months it would take to completely liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

There were 5.9 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of April 2015, down from 6.1 months in March and 6.5 months at the end of January when it reached the highest level in nearly two years. While the sales-to-new listings ratio and months of inventory measures of market balance indicate that the housing market has tightened on a national basis over the past few months, both measures remain firmly entrenched in balanced market territory.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI rose by 4.97 per cent on a year-over-year basis in April, on par with the 4.95 per cent year-over-year gain recorded in March.

Year-over-year price growth accelerated in April for apartment units and two-storey single family homes, while decelerating for townhouse/row units and one-storey single family homes.

Single family home sales continue to post the biggest year-over-year price gains (+5.84 per cent), led by two-storey single family homes (+6.89 per cent). By comparison, the rise in selling prices was more modest for one-storey single family homes (+4.20 per cent), townhouse/row units (+3.87 per cent), and apartment units (+2.60 per cent).

Full article & statistics: Click HERE!

Source: CREA.ca

Contact me
for information about the housing market in Durham Region!  

Randy Miller
Broker of Record

Royal Heritage Realty Ltd.
Offices in Pickering and in Whitby

905-430-1800

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How is the Housing Market?

May 5, 2015 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Paul Etherington announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 11,303 sales in April 2015.  This represented a 17 per cent increase in comparison to April 2014.  While sales increased strongly on a year-over-year basis, new listings were up over the same period by a more moderate five per cent.

Toronto MLS Sales

Toronto MLS Sales Trendline

Toronto MLS New Listings

Mr. Etherington said that the record April result clearly points to the fact that a growing number of GTA households view ownership housing as a high quality long-term investment. First-time buyers and existing homeowners remain very active in today’s market.

Toronto MLS Avg Price

Toronto MLS Avg Resale Home Price
The overall average selling price was up by 10 per cent year-over-year to $635,932.  The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) composite benchmark, which estimates the price of a benchmark home with the same attributes from one period to the next, was up by 8.4 per cent over the same period.  The fact that average price growth outpaced growth for the MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark, suggests that a greater share of higher-end homes changed hands this year compared to last.

Price growth in the GTA was strongest for low-rise home types.  However, the better supplied condominium apartment segment also remained healthy with price growth above the rate of inflation.

“Demand for ownership housing was very high relative to the number of homes available for sale in April.  This situation is not expected to change markedly as we move through the remainder of 2015.  Until we experience a sustained period in which listings grow at a faster pace than sales, annual rates of home price growth will remain strong,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.Affordability

Housing market getting hot throughout Durham Region

Durham Region Association of REALTORS® (DRAR) President Sandra O’Donohue reported 1,315 residential transactions in April 2015. This is an increase of 16.4 per cent from 1,130 in April of last year. In addition to a greater number of sales, there are also more homes listed. Durham saw 1,816 new listings enter the market in April 2015 compared to 1,709 in April 2014.

The average selling price in the Durham Region reached $440,151 last month, a 12.5 per cent increase compared to $391,351 in the same period last year. “Buyers are still seeing the value of home ownership,” explained O’Donohue, “ and low interest rates continue to be a factor in determining affordability”.

Avg Home Selling Price Durham Region

Homes in Durham are selling in an average of 15 days. “Homes are being listed for more than they were last year and are selling an average of 2 days sooner” reported O’Donohue.

"The housing market continues to gain momentum and we expect this trend to continue into the later months of summer,” stated O’Donohue. “We are seeing evidence of the importance of home ownership and the benefit of investing in the Durham Region”.

If you are looking for a house in Durham Region or are already a homeowner and wish to move to a new house in Pickering, Ajax, Whitby, Brooklin, Oshawa, Courtice or Bowmanville, please contact me for more information. Having sold real estate in Whitby and the Durham Region for over 20 years, I can help you with both - the buying and selling process. 

Randy Miller
Broker of Record
Royal Heritage Realty Ltd.
Offices in Pickering and in Whitby
905-430-1800

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Sales and Price Up Year-Over-Year in March 2015

April 7, 2015. Toronto Real Estate Board President Paul Etherington announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 8,940 sales in March 2015. This result represented an 11 per cent increase compared to March 2014. Sales were up for most major home types, both in the City of Toronto and the surrounding regions. New listings were also up, but by a lesser 5.5 per cent, indicating tighter market conditions.

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“Home sales increased compared to last year as the cost of home ownership remained affordable, with lower interest rates going a long way to mitigate the effect of rising home prices. However, a substantial amount of pent-up demand remains in place, especially as it relates to low-rise market segments. This suggests that strong competition between buyers, which has fuelled strong price growth so far this year, will continue to be experienced throughout the spring,” said Mr. Etherington.

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In March, the average selling price for all reported transactions was $613,933 – up 10 per cent year-over-year. The MLS® HPI Composite Index, which tracks benchmark homes with the same attributes from one period to the next, was up by 7.9 per cent. Average price growth was strongest for detached homes in the City of Toronto, at 15.9 per cent. Over the same period the detached MLS® HPI in the '416' area code increased 7.8 per cent.

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The MLS® HPI provides a clear indication of price growth due to market forces - the relationship between demand and supply. Comparing MLS® HPI growth to average price growth provides a sense of the changing mix of home types sold from one period to the next.

"It is clear that seller's market conditions in many parts of the GTA are driving price growth. However, looking at the detached market segment in the City of Toronto in particular, growth in the average selling price outstripped growth in the MLS® HPI. This points to the fact that the mix of detached homes sold this year compared to last has shifted towards more expensive properties," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.

Increased Average Home Prices in Durham Region

Durham Region Association of REALTORS® (DRAR) President Sandra O’Donohue reported 1,086 residential transactions in March 2015.

This resulted in an increase of 14.7 per cent from 947 in March of last year. “The number of sales increased significantly year-over-year, however, we are still seeing less inventory compared to the same period last year” reported O’Donohue. Durham saw 1,527 new listings enter the market in March 2015 compared to 1,553 in March 2014. “This makes for competition between buyers and drives home prices up” explained O’Donohue.

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The average selling price in the Durham Region reached $430,291 in March 2015. In March 2014, the average price of a home in the Durham Region was $380,267. “Low interest rates are keeping home ownership affordable even with the rise in home prices” explained O’Donohue. Average price growth was strongest for townhouses in the Durham Region, at 15.3 per cent compared to the same period last year.

Competition between buyers has also had an effect on the sale price over list price percentage. “We have seen homes sell for an average of 101 per cent of the asking price. This is a factor that is driving prices up across the Durham Region, and is an indicator of a strong seller’s market,” explained O’Donohue. In March of last year, the average home sold for 99 per cent of its asking price.

"Durham is still experiencing a seller’s market. However, low borrowing rates are keeping home ownership affordable” explained O’Donohue. “Buyers continue to view home ownership within the Durham Region as a great long-term investment”.

If you are looking for a house in Durham Region or are already a homeowner and wish to move to a new house in Pickering, Ajax, Whitby, Brooklin, Oshawa, Courtice or Bowmanville, please contact me for more information.

Having sold real estate in Whitby and the Durham Region for over 20 years, I can help you with both - the buying and selling process. 

Randy Miller
Broker of Record
Royal Heritage Realty Ltd.
Offices in Pickering and in Whitby
905-430-1800

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San Francisco’s housing market is strong for many of the same reasons as Toronto’s:

- Migration, which is adding 10,000 new residents each year
- Low levels of unemployment which support prices
- Surging stock markets that make people feel wealthier
- High rents which make ownership attractive
- Low interest rates

Source: Paragon Real Estate Group

If Toronto’s housing market comes under pressure, the experience of San Francisco may offer some clues about what might happen. How far might prices fall? How long would the pain last and what would a recovery look like?

Even though GTA house prices have been predicted to fall in each of the past 10 years, they keep hitting new highs. The average price of a home in the GTA rose 7.5 per cent in January, year over year, bringing the average to $552,575.

The housing stakes are particularly high in the GTA, says TD Bank deputy chief economist Derek Burleton. He says a healthy real estate market is critical to the region’s overall fortunes and since the GTA is Canada’s economic engine, the rise or fall of housing carries a national weight.

As an example of what can happen, Burleton says the oil price shock is paralyzing Calgary’s housing market. Average prices are down 10 per cent from their highs and more is likely in store. Listings are rising, but buyers are few and far between.

“They’re saying, ‘Why buy now when you can wait and it will be cheaper?’ ” he says.

Burleton says GTA house prices are 10 to 15 per cent higher than they should be relative to rents and income growth. But that doesn’t mean a crash is coming now, or later. That number is a calculation and not necessarily the way people behave.

“Prices may be higher than they should be, but that can be sustained for years,” he says.

Burleton says it would take a huge economic shock, “a global event” to cause the kind of drop seen in the U.S. post-2008, where prices fell by an average 35 per cent over three years. But even that number is misleading because the experience in overbuilt Sunbelt states like Arizona and Florida was far more painful than big urban centres with real economies.

There are things we can conclude from the way cities like San Francisco coped with the crash. Bay Area prices tumbled by an average 27 per cent between 2008 and 2011 as part of the subprime mortgage lending collapse. By the end of 2014, they were 15 per cent above the 2008 peak.

San Francisco is similar in many ways to the GTA. The Bay Area includes Oakland and San Jose, the home of Silicon Valley. It has a metro population of 7.7 million. It attracts creative talent and offers high paid jobs.

The GTA has a population of about six million. Toronto is the head office capital of Canada as well as a centre for banking, investing and finance. Like San Francisco, the GTA attracts migration from other parts of the country, as well as investment from abroad. Both cities are social and cultural centres.

“When people talk about the most desirable places in North America to live, Toronto and San Francisco are usually on the list,” says Patrick Carlisle, chief market analyst with the Paragon Real Estate Group, one of San Francisco’s largest realtors.

Carlisle says the causes of the U.S. housing crash were unique. Ultralow rates following Sept. 11 supercharged mortgage lending. When that was combined with “refinance insanity and degraded loan underwriting standards” you set the table for disaster. He says criminally lax lending rules meant unemployed people, with no sources of income, were being qualified for mortgages worth hundreds of thousands of dollars. Those loans became assets on the books of banks and other lenders. Once these “homeowners” started defaulting, things quickly fell apart.

Home Price Index San Francisco
(Source: Paragon Real Estate Group)


Carlisle has looked at 30 years of San Francisco housing data that includes three corrections. One in 1991 lasted three years and led to an average 11-per-cent drop in prices. A one-year sell off in 2001 caused by the dot-com bust and Sept. 11 also saw prices fall 11 per cent. The third, averaging 27 per cent over three years, was the latest.

He says the broad cycle is consistent: price retreats for two or three years, a bottoming out for a couple more and then a quick climb. The cycles can be short or long, but are tied to economic well-being. Once recovery starts, prices quickly accelerate “as if somebody turned on a switch.”

San Francisco Housing Market Cycles
(Source: Paragon Real Estate Group)

Lawrence Yun, chief economist with the National Association of Realtors, a Washington, D.C., lobby group, agrees with Carlisle.

“One difference between Canada and the U.S. is that the U.S. had lax underwriting standards. The Canadian market has been fuelled by low rates and good underwriting standards that keep payments at manageable levels.”

Yun believes our housing market will stay intact as long as the economy is creating jobs.

“San Francisco is strong because the job market is strong. If you can hang on to jobs in Toronto, then prices will hold up,” he says “But if the economy goes into a mild recession home prices will decline.”

Yun says housing is affected by local economic conditions which is why prices rose in Dallas-Fort Worth during the worst of the bust. The oil industry was booming. These days, prices are falling in Dallas, as they are in Calgary.

Meanwhile, Boston has joined San Francisco in surpassing its 2008 price peaks, while Chicago, another city often compared with Toronto, has not.

The bigger point is that whatever happens will not be world ending, but part of a cycle that has repeated itself many times since the Dutch Tulip mania of the 1600s.

“While future cycles will vary in their details, the causes, effects and trends are often quite similar,” Carlisle says, adding in a recent research note: “Up, Down, Flat, Up Down, Flat . . . Repeat.”

Source: by Adam Meyers, The Star http://www.thestar.com/business/personal_finance/2015/02/18/if-gta-housing-unravels-how-it-might-unfold-mayers.html

Durham’s housing market off to a great start with a promising forecast for 2015

Within Durham Region price growth is anticipated to continue into 2015 and with low borrowing rates, housing remains affordable. For more insight into Durham Region's housing market, contact me!  

Randy Miller
Broker of Record

Royal Heritage Realty Ltd.
Offices in Pickering and in Whitby

905-430-1800


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